[This is a guest column written by our friend Amar Panchmatia. You know him as the superstar behind the former (and greatly missed) MVN.com blog Cavalier Attitude.]
Count me in as one of those who laugh at the notion that LeBron James needs a "bigger market" than Cleveland to accomplish all of his ambitions—both on the court and off it.
But do not count me in as one of those who believes that James' re-signing with the Cleveland Cavaliers is all but a foregone conclusion. That would be just as absurd as suggesting that the size of the city, especially in today's day and age, has anything to do with it.
The Cavs still have a problem. Believe it or not, those problems—along with the good times—started rolling as soon as James took the floor for his rookie season.
That is because the Cavaliers became a good team almost immediately. This impeded their ability to add more players of James' age through the draft. Instead of building a nucleus around their franchise cornerstone, the Cavs added veterans and journeymen role players to build around a superstar who was barely 20 years old. In short, they were stuck playing for the present instead of the future.
When your franchise player is barely old enough to legally buy his own drink at the bar or club, surrounding him with 30-somethings is never the best strategy to take.
To further stack the deck against the Cavs' ability to build for the future around James, former General Manager Jim Paxson recklessly traded away first-round draft picks in 2005 and 2007 for, of all people, Jiri Welsch. However, neither one of those picks would have been in the top 10. And although gems are found in the draft outside the top 10, players picked in the lottery tend to be far more of a sure thing than players taken after it.
As a result, the Cavs became a one-man team with a supporting cast overflowing with interchangeable parts. One year the team is going to the NBA Finals while surrounding James with Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones. Just 24 months later, they are winning a league-best and franchise-record 66 games with Mo Williams, Delonte West, Ben Wallace, and Wally Szczerbiak calling themselves members of King James' court.
After the franchise struggled mightily during its last year in Seattle amidst a very young roster, Presti again found himself in the draft lottery in the summer of 2008. That is when he took UCLA combo guard Russell Westbrook, an explosive scorer who was just two months younger than Durant.
Today, Presti has gone on to add former Arizona State shooting guard James Harden, a year younger than Durant, to his growing nucleus. It is a core that basketball fans can expect to grow together and blossom into one of the more exciting teams in the NBA. The alignment of their career symmetries will assure the fact that these guys can play together for the rest of their careers if they so choose.
It makes the prospect of just plugging veterans in and out around Durant unnecessary. It also makes the thought of Durant giving serious thought to leaving Oklahoma City, a market much, much smaller than Cleveland, extremely laughable.
With the Cavs, LeBron is from Northeast Ohio, a fact which has afforded the franchise a lot less sleepless nights than what you would expect if that was not the case. But now, seven seasons into the career of a player who has quickly emerged as the best in the game, the Cavs have still failed to give him young All-Star caliber "sidekicks" that would increase his sense of loyalty and commitment for the long term.
With James just five months away from officially becoming an unrestricted free agent, the Cavs have one last chance to add that kind of a player before their future is out of their hands. February 18th is the NBA trade deadline, and given the Cavs' willingness to take on salary combined with the number of teams looking to dump payroll, expect Cavs GM Danny Ferry to be extremely active for the next two to three weeks.
And that's the very least he can do.
Cleveland has been linked to players such as Andre Iguodala (26) and Amar'e Stoudemire (27) along with David West (29). Considering that LeBron just turned 25 a month ago, you can expect players like Iguodala and Stoudemire to "grow old with" James and spend their careers together for as long as they wish.
The Cavs and their fans thought they had their man in Mo Williams last year when Williams made the All-Star team for the first time in his career at the age of 26. Williams' 17.8 points per game were the most averaged by a Cavs player not named LeBron in James' entire career. However, as the playoffs proved, Williams was probably a good third option being miscast as a No. 2 scorer, and the Cavs paid dearly with their loss to Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals.
A player like Iguodala would be perfect since he is just a year older than James and has spent just one year less in the league than LeBron. Their career symmetries would align perfectly, and Iguodala—given the fact that he is also entering the prime of his career—could quite possibly be the best player the Cavs have ever given LeBron to play with during his career.
The same goes for Stoudemire, who is just about two years older than James. But Stoudemire's decorated career leaves little doubt that he is one of the elite players in the game, as the perennial All-Star would form a lethal combination with LeBron if the two decide to re-sign simultaneously with Cleveland this offseason.
But those are the lines along which the Cavaliers have to be thinking. Right now, allegiance to his hometown is the overwhelming reason LeBron, the odds-on favorite to win his second consecutive MVP award this year, has to stay with the Cavs. Only one player—the 34-year-old Zydrunas Ilgauskas—has been with the Cavs since LeBron's rookie year, symbolizing the massive upheaval that the roster has undergone every few years.
James does not really have to go anywhere else and start a new life in a new city if he does not want to, but any team he signs with becomes a contender overnight. He has proven that fact by singlehandedly lifting the Cavaliers to the top of the league despite the musical chairs that is being played by his supporting cast.
Cleveland's ascent to the top of the league through the years has been linked directly to James' ascent as a player, although the Cavs have done a good job surrounding him with role players that fit around him.
But those role players are replaceable for the most part. Giving James a young star—possibly superstar—increases his allegiance to the organization even more. And it reduces the number of sleepless nights that Ferry, team owner Dan Gilbert, and the three million residents of the Cleveland/Akron metropolitan area have to endure between now and July 1, 2010.
February 18, however, is the date they will have to worry about first.
(Photo by Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)
good analysis. for what its worth, their 2007 pick ended up being rudy fernandez (phoenix traded/sold it to portland). no he's not an all-star. yes id love to have him on this team. thanks for ruining my day though about paxson. to make matters worse, he blew numerous other first round picks, such as on the likes of Luke Jackson (who WAS a lottery pick). andris biedris, josh smith, al jefferson, jameer nelson, kevin martin all could have been had. in particular, Al Jefferson!
Posted by: mike | February 2, 2010 at 06:21 AM
Good to have you back Amar. Don't forget about the whole Boozer fiasco. Paxson's hatchet job as the Cav's GM might have netted us Lebron, but it also left the proverbial cupboard bare of any draft picks or tradable assets. Ferry’s ability to bring quality players to this organization along with injecting some youth has been impressive.
Posted by: BB | February 2, 2010 at 08:01 AM
I completely disagree with the whole notion that the Cavs should have built the team around LeBron in the same way the Thunder have built around Durant.
If LeBron had lost as many games as Durant has lost (43-121) in the first two years of his career, he would have been crushed by the national media. Destroyed. Durant and LeBron are not in the same stratosphere when it comes to attention and expectations. The Cavs did not have the kind of leeway with LeBron that OKC has with Durant.
In addition, there is no championship team in the last 30 years that was built as a group of four draft picks growing together. This is just as likely to fail for the Thunder as it did for the Chicago Bulls of three seasons ago, or the current Portland Trailblazers, or any number of similar situations. There is just too much that has to go right for a team to succeed in the NBA. You can't afford to throw multiple seasons away as part of a five-year plan. It may work out for the Thunder, but at this point there's no reason to think that it will end up being any more successful than what the Cavs have done in LeBron's six seasons, or what they will do in the next six.
Posted by: Mike | February 2, 2010 at 10:51 AM
By far one of the best Cavs-related articles I have ever read.
Posted by: Larry B | February 2, 2010 at 12:19 PM
Very unique article regarding 2010.. not something we have heard over and over again.. *cough* New York *cough*. Not going to say I completely agree 100%. I will not be one to blame the Cavs organization. I think LeBron looks fondly upon the dedication to previous years of success. One main reason I believe LBJ will stay is that he understands how much the management has done to bring MULTIPLE winning seasons. He respects winning.
Posted by: Nate Shultz | February 2, 2010 at 01:05 PM
Nice article. But I am interested in seeing what someone close to the Cavs thinks about standing pat this year, just like last year. I was on board with everyone who thought one player needed to be added last February. But the more I watch the Cavs of late, the more I am convinced that they should do nothing this year. The chemistry is fantastic and they really seem to be building toward something. It is palpable. And, if they are able to win it all, which is a very good bet, after signing LeBron, they should do everything they can to re-sign Shaq AND Z. Sign them each to a one year contract and try to keep the good thing going.
Posted by: Bob Ronau | February 2, 2010 at 09:16 PM
It seems like you're just trying to find an angle for your blog post here...and you're struggling and losing.
The Cavs have a few players on their team who have been part of this nucleus for a few seasons now. Lebron has made them better players, like all great players do. Take a pretty standard comparison point for Lebron these days: Michael Jordan. His first championship team's starters included John Paxson, Scottie Pippen, Horace Grant, and Bill Cartwright. Do you think any of those guys is measurably better than guys like Varajao, Williams, Gibson? I think those guys constitute a similar core that Jordan brought up with him and kept around for his first three-peat.
Posted by: sb | February 3, 2010 at 01:15 AM
the lebron era can be divided into pre-dan gilbert/ferry and post-gilbert/ferry. the fact is, paxson had an opportunity to build the team around lbj in a manner similar to how presti is doing around durant. Paxson, however, screwed it up royally by trading away future first round picks in 2005 and 2007, letting Boozer walk for no reason (granted, he DID make up for it in snagging Varejao from Orlando. without boozer leaving, we dont get AV) and missing big time in the 2004 draft lottery by taking Luke Jackson. you can also argue that Paxson missed royally in the andre miller trade. that was an awful trade and theres no reason he HAD to trade miller before the season started that year. he easily could have waited until the next trade deadline to create a bidding war. worst case scenario is Darius Miles would still have been available at the next trade deadline if nothing better surfaced. how did paxson not even get future first round picks in that andre miller trade?
once Ferry/Dan Gilbert came aboard, lebron's rookie contract was almost up and the cavs HAD to go all in. they couldnt wait around "being bad" for a few more years. on top of that, ferry was behind the 8 ball since paxson had traded away those 2005 and 2007 first round picks, did not accumulate any additional first rounders and missed out with the luke jackson pick (ie, we had no viable trade assets). what if paxson takes Al Jefferson that year? then what if the cavs trade Jefferson as the foundation of a KG trade, instead of him going to Boston? think about that one!
Posted by: mike | February 3, 2010 at 06:07 AM
actually no, the cavs don't need to make a trade because in essence they already have in the form of leon powe. powe is due to come back sometime soon after the all-star break which would be just about the same time as when the trade deadline is up, so they can just consider him as their "trade acquisition" then. just think that they have now won 9 games in a row with the majority of those games without both their starting & back-up point guards. getting those guys back and adding powe to the mix will only make them that much better. the really nice thing about this whole situation though is that powe will have already been used to playing with his teammates in practice unlike anyone they were to actually trade for and so any potential chemistry issues will be non-existent.
Posted by: davemanddd | February 3, 2010 at 08:20 PM
"Michael Jordan. His first championship team's starters included John Paxson, Scottie Pippen, Horace Grant, and Bill Cartwright. Do you think any of those guys is measurably better than guys like Varajao, Williams, Gibson?"
Scottie Pippen is one of the 50 greatest players of all time. Please don't insult him and his career by putting him on the same stratosphere as Anderson Varejao, Mo Williams, and Daniel Gibson. In fact, in 1993-94, Pippen put together one of the best all-around seasons in league history at age 28 and in the prime of his career: 22.0 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 5.6 apg, 2.9 steals (league leader), and 0.8 blocks while shooting 49.1% from the field.
That's the kind of player Jordan had as a SIDEKICK. He was also one of the best defenders ever. Even if the Cavs had held on to Boozer, he wouldn't have held a candle to Pippen and what he has accomplished in his career.
Just numbers-wise, Boozer and Horace Grant were comparable. They were both similar players in terms of style too. But if you gave LeBron a player of Pippen's stature, we would have already had a parade down Euclid Avenue by now instead of having this discussion.
Posted by: Amar P | February 4, 2010 at 12:43 AM