CAVS RECORD: 19-63
A Semi-Sober Cavs Plus / Minus Report
Last night, I sat down with a bottle of wine and NBA.com’s Plus/Minus Stat Machine . . . which, I wish I could say is a joke . . . and started sifting through some Cavs numbers.
Just for the hell of it, I guess.
But I did dig up a few mildly interesting things.
If you’ve been following NBA stats over the past few years, you’re familiar with plus/minus.
Basically, it’s a representation of how much better a team is, or isn’t, when a certain player (or players) is on the floor. (Before being used in the NBA, it was a prevalent hockey statistic.)
It only directly counts team point differential . . . but naturally, that has a way of sucking in all kinds of other data (like general defense) that represent a player’s value to the five-man unit he’s with on the floor.
NBA.com hypes plus/minus by saying: “It’s a way of showing the best-engineered / best combination of players on the court. The +/- stat is a statistic that looks at the point differential when players are both in and out of the game, to see how the team performs with various combinations. The analysis of +/- stats is best observed and analyzed while drinking cheap french red wine from your local grocery store.”
OK, that last line is original.
Here are a few interesting things I found:
#1.) Individually, LeBron James (+611), Anderson Varejao (+516) and Anthony Parker (+407) are the top three plus/minus players on the team. For perspective, those numbers make LeBron #1 in the NBA, Varejao is tied for #2 with Dwight Howard, and Parker is #8. Yes, the Cavs have the highest team margin of victory in the Association, but having three players in the Top Eight, individually, is impressive.
#2.) Obviously, the best two-player tandem on the Cavs is LeBron and Varejao (+506, 1st in the NBA) . . . followed by LeBron and Parker (+417, 3rd in the NBA) and Varejao and Parker (+356, 9th in the NBA). LeBron and Mo are fourth (+298, 27th in the NBA).
#3.) The best three-man team, plus/minus-wise, on the Cavs? You guessed it: LeBron, Varejao, and Parker (+322, 4th in the NBA). Second is LeBron, Varejao, and Mo (+279, 16th in the NBA) and third is LeBron, Varejao, and Delonte West (+271, 18th in the NBA).
#4.) The best four-man group is LeBron, Varejao, Parker and Mo (+190, 19th in the NBA). Next, there are two groups tied with +121, which is tied for 38th in the NBA: LeBron, Varejao, Parker, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas (somewhat surprisingly) . . . and LeBron, Varejao, Parker and West.
#5.) For a variety of reasons, Shaq has never been a big plus/minus guy for the Cavs this season. Individually, he (+96) and J.J. Hickson (+77) are the lowest in Mike Brown’s regular rotation. (Which doesn’t include Leon Powe, Jawad Williams and Danny Green.)
Instead, Z pops up in a lot of the best five-man teams, again, in terms of plus/minus.
The Cavs best lineup is LeBron, Varejao, Parker, Mo, and Z (+51, 27th in the NBA). Second is LeBron, Varejao, Parker, Daniel “Boobie” Gibson, and Z (+48, 29th in the NBA) . . . and third is LeBron, Varejao, Parker, Mo, and Antawn Jamison (+45, 32nd in the NBA).
[By the way, the wine was a few glasses of Louis Jadot beaujolais, which you can find for $10 at Trader Joe's. It has a parchment-like label. It's one of my favorites, if you're ever interested in trying something new. Since this is the Wine and Gold Rush, if you have a tip on a cheap-ish wine that you like . . . drop it in the comments and I'll check it out.]
Request for Jamario: Wanna Help Me Develop the “Double Gooseneck”???
Jamario Moon has been reduced to a cheerleader.
A good one, but a cheerleader nonetheless. And so has Daniel “Boobie” Gibson . . . and while he’s no cheerleading superstar like Jamario (and rookie Danny Green), he’s still pretty excitable.
Whenever there’s an above-average play . . . even if it’s only marginally above-average . . . Jamario is probably doing something ridiculous on the sideline in front of the Cleveland Cavaliers bench. And if the team is playing flat, he can still be seen smiling, just waiting for the moment to explode.
It’s that sort of energy, intensity and explosive tendency that’s hard to keep bottled on the sideline, especially when the team is sparklessly going through the motions.
(Which is why it would seem to make sense to move him onto the court in those situations, right?)
He’s basically this year’s Tarence Kinsey, only Jamario is a more talented player. Not that it matters when you’re left to cheerlead on the bench. (By the way, can anyone imagine if we had both Jamario and Tarence? The NBA would have to allow the Cavaliers to expand their roster just so that there would be enough players to restrain them in the event that Delonte West dunks off a cut.)
Before the All-Star Break, Coach Mike Brown held Jamario out of one game that he was healthy for. Since the All-Star Break, he’s been held out of seven games he could have played in. In the Cavs’ last six games, Jamario has entered only one game . . . and that was for eight minutes in a 30-point blowout over Detroit.
If you dismiss Sebastian Telfair (which we’ve all already been doing for years now) and rookie Danny Green, is it possible that Jamario is fighting off Gibson to be the second-least valuable player on the Cavs’ roster?
Yes. Apparently.
Boobie is in essentially the same position as Jamario.
Just three years ago, when the Cavs were entering their first-ever Finals series, Daniel appeared to be on the verge of emerging as one of the Cavs’ best players . . . and we’re talking between second- and fifth-best. Now, only he, LeBron, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao remain from that team.
And now, Boobie can’t get into a game.
In the Cavs’ last 17 games, he’s only been in five. And he played just one minute in two of the ones he did get into . . . and in another he just played eight minutes. So Boobie has only received “substantial” minutes twice . . . 22 and 13, respectively . . . since February 21st.
This is for a dude that was having a pretty strong season . . . both offensively and defensively . . . at the beginning of the season, and for a guy who scored in double-figures in nine of ten games while Mo Williams was out with a sprained shoulder.
Not too long ago, it would’ve seemed crazy that Daniel could be the Cavs’ 13th best player. In the recent past, the same could be said of Jamario. Especially with neither of them playing themselves out of the rotation.
That’s depth. Serious depth.
Since January, we’ve seen the improvement of Jawad Williams, the rise of J.J. Hickson, the trade for Antawn Jamison, the arrival of Leon Powe and the return of Z. And soon, Shaq will be back in the mix, too.
Some Cleveland fans would like to see more Jamario, others would like to see more Boobie, and everyone would like to see something fresh when the Cavs fall into their bad habits of casually playing down to the level of their opponents.
But barring any further injuries, it’s unlikely that Coach Brown will expand his rotation in the run-up to the playoffs . . . at least for any real minutes. His priorities are now on setting the playoff rotations and getting those players going. And Jamario and Boobie aren’t in line to play much in the playoffs.
The playoff rotation will be eight, or maybe nine players, max: (1) LeBron, (2) Mo, (3) Jamison, (4) Varejao, (5) Delonte, (6) Anthony Parker, (7) Hickson, (8) Z, and (9) Shaq (and until Shaq is back, they might have Leon Powe in for his center-playing abilities).
So, that means the cheerleaders will be Jamario, Boobie, Jawad, Danny, and Sebastian.
OK.
Since that’s how it looks like it’s going to be, I have a special request for Jamario. I’d like him to spend some of his time on the bench dreaming up more inside jokes and cheers for Cavs players and fans.
Everyone loves the overly complicated handshakes and the Gooseneck, which Jamario apparently started. Now, let’s usher in something new for this year’s playoffs. And as you may have guessed, I have a suggestion. It needs a little work . . . hopefully by Jamario himself . . . but the framework is there.
I call it . . . the Double Gooseneck. Or Goosey Times Two. Or Goosey2x.
It’s like the Gooseneck, hence the similar name, only instead of a one-handed, cocked follow-through . . . it’s a two-handed Goosey follow-through.
Here are a few examples:
First, it looks like Barack Obama is doing a “Double Gooseneck,” here.
And here’s some cute little kid doing the “Goosey Times Two” to perfection!
And finally, here’s the hand signal for the “Double Gooseneck”:
Thoughts?
The Cavs Aren’t Good At Free Throws
Fox Sports Ohio color commentator Austin Carr has a saying (naturally) for when a Cavs player fools a defender into biting on a pump-fake, leaving the ground, and fouling the shooter on the way down.
He says: “He got himself a bird.”
And he usually follows that up with a sing-songy: “Time to go to the line for two.”
But there hasn’t been anything sing-songy about what actually happens at the line: Which, at least recently, has been a split of the pair . . . hopefully.
It’s become so much of an adventure, or misadventure, that – with the way the Cavs have been scoring from the field – you kind of just want them to forget the song, forget the bird, forget the pump-fake and just take the shot and live or die with that.
I realize that isn’t great basketball, but it sure beats bricking free throws.
Cleveland’s free throw shooting has been atrocious all season . . . and as of late, it’s been even worse.
In November, the Cavs shot 73.4% from the line. In December, they made 74.7% . . . in January, it was 71.5% . . . in February, it was 72.8% . . . and now in March, it’s 65.4%.
And Shaquille O’Neal hasn’t even played since February 25th.
Sunday’s game against the geriatric Boston Celtics was a 104-93 win. It’s wasn’t a blowout . . . although it easily could’ve been, if the Cavs would’ve made some free throws. They went 31-for-48 from the line, which means they missed 17 “free” throws for an abysmal 64.6%.
So, no, the Cavs couldn’t even cover their 65.4% average for the month.
[I just Googled "average high school free throw percentage." The very unofficial answer? "About 65%." That seems a little high, but in any event . . . 15 feet is 15 feet. It's always the same. It's a shot these guys have been shooting all their lives . . . a shot the coaches have spent their careers coaching.]
On Sunday, Leon Powe went 6-for-6 and Delonte West went 2-for-2 from the stripe . . . and it went downhill from there. Antawn Jamison missed six (2-of-8), LeBron James missed five (11-of-16), Anderson Varejao missed three (5-of-8), J.J. Hickson missed two (4-of-6) and Anthony Parker split two shots.
Here’s some perspective:
On the season, the Cavs are shooting 72.1% on free throws. That’s 29th out of the 30 teams in the league. The only team that’s worse is the Detroit Pistons, who shoot 71.6%.
The median, the Toronto Raptors, make their free throws 76.5% of the time. The L.A. Lakers are 10th in the NBA at 77.1% . . . and the Dallas Mavericks lead everyone at 81.8%.
The Cavs are being out-free-throw-percentaged by their opponents 76% to 72.1%.
In the last 10 games, the Cavs’ free throws are going in at an embarrassing 69.6% clip, which is 28th in the league. The lottery teams Sacramento and Detroit are worse. Over the last five games, the Cavs are shooting 64.9%, which is, by far, the worst in the NBA in that stretch.
So, who needs to pick it up? Well, everyone.
Last season, the Cavs shot 75.7% at the line, while their opponents shot 77%. And I don’t know about you, but I don’t remember anyone thinking that the Cavs were lighting the world on fire from the line then either.
That number would still have the Cavs in the bottom half of the NBA this season . . . but it was their best average at the line since they shot 77.2% during the 2001-2002 season. (Shout out to Andre Miller.)
Anyway, fast-forward eight seasons.
Take a look at the rough chart I built for the ’09-’10 individual players’ free throw averages below. If I had better skillz it would be awesome . . . but since I don’t, it is what it is.
[It begins with the players' career averages, then lists their percentages for each month this season, then lists their total makes/attempts up through Sunday's game, then lists their season average, then lists the differential, or "The Diff" as The Q likes to call it, between this season and their career average. A positive number is an improvement.]
So what do we get out of this?
Well, good or bad, there isn’t one or two guys that are really under-performing.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Daniel Gibson and Shaquille O’Neal have drawn plenty of free-throw groans . . . but not recently. Shaq hasn’t played in almost three weeks, and I can’t really remember the last time Boobie or Z shot a free throw.
Powe’s sample size isn’t quite big enough yet . . . but Jamison’s is. And he’s been a train-wreck at the line. In 13 games with the Cavaliers, Antawn is 20-of-46 from the stripe. That’s 43.5%. That’s sub-Shaq-esque!
Most of the rest of the Cavs . . . including LeBron, who’s up 2.8% to 77% . . . are actually shooting at their career average or above it, which basically means one thing:
The Cavs don’t have a lot of great free throw shooters.
Remember how I said the Toronto Raptors are the median team in the NBA right now with a 76.5% free throw percentage as a team?
Well, the Cavs only have three players on their roster with a career average of 76.5% or better. Mo, Delonte and AP. And when Z comes back they’ll have four, although he hasn’t been shooting close to 76.5% this season.
Since stellar (and in some cases, acceptable) free throw shooting isn’t in the Cavs’ DNA, there isn’t a quick fix to snap them out of the funk. The coaching staff (hopefully Chris Jent) is probably working with individual players on their form . . . and the players themselves need to remain focused and relaxed.
There’s been a lot of talk about how LeBron and Mo (and others) have some pretty intense competitions in practice involving three-point shooting. If there isn’t one already, would it be lame to suggest that they come up with one for foul shooting?
Not everyone has it in them to be a great free throw shooter, but you can improve. Take LeBron . . . over the past five seasons, he’s shot 73.8%, 69.8%, 71.2%, 78%, and now 77% from the line.
The Cavs can do it. They’re currently third in the NBA in field goal percentage (48.7%) and second in the NBA in 3-point percentage (39.1%).
They’re talented enough to hit some 15-foot freebies.
And I hope they start doing it soon . . . because when you get a bird, the bird should be the one that’s in trouble. Not you.
Mike Brown Shrinks the Rotation . . . and the New Cavs Grind Out a Win
Once the playoffs hit, Mike Brown’s tendency (like a lot of coaches) will be to shrink the rotation down to seven or eight players . . . and barring any injuries or severe lop-sidedness, that’s it. That’s the team.
If Zydrunas Ilguaskas comes back, he gets the final spot in that Top Eight. That sure leaves a lot of talent on the bench. This deep, deep depth is a good problem to have, but it doesn’t exactly output easy answers. The nagging question will always be: Are my Top Eight really my Top Eight . . . right now?
Wednesday’s game against the New Orleans Hornets was a “must win.”
Not in a playoff, do-or-die way, of course. And actually, not in any sort of real, necessary way either. But it was nonetheless, and Mike Brown celebrated that fact by using a tight, playoff rotation.
To explain the little extra playoff-like seriousness, consider Cleveland came into the New Orleans game on a three-game losing streak.
The Cavs were 0-3 since the All-Star Break, they were 0-3 with Mo Williams back, they were 0-3 with Antawn Jamison on the team, they were 0-2 with Jamison actually playing, and 0-1 with Jamison playing and not going 0-for-12 from the field.
The Cavaliers were already on their first three-game losing streak since March of 2008. A loss would be their first two-game home losing streak since April of 2008 . . . and their first four-game losing streak since December of 2007, when they lost six in a row.
[LeBron sat out five of those games with a sprained left index finger. If you want to go back to the last four-game losing streak with LeBron, you have to go back to the 2007 NBA Finals sweep. The last regular season four-game losing streak with LeBron happened four years ago, in February of 2006, when the Cavs' starting backcourt was Eric Snow and Flip Murray.]
Yes, the rotation has been a revolving door recently, with Jamison, Mo, Delonte and Powe coming in . . . and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, along with players like Jawad Williams, Jamario Moon and Daniel Gibson going out. It’s definitely a major transitional point for the team.
But at some point, the Cavs were just going to have to get the Moondog off their backs, so that they could go back to improving and working on their game like they’re used to: While winning.
Mike Brown wanted this game more than anything. (Well, maybe more than anything except being able to see the team finally start playing some freakin’ defense again, which didn’t happen in this game.)
Fortunately, the Cavs ended up beating the Hornets 105-95.
Perhaps fittingly, Brown achieved the win while firmly sticking to a tight eight-man rotation. It included the Top Seven listed above, plus Jamario (in what would probably be Z’s spot).
Was it Bown’s Top Eight players right now? Maybe not . . . Mo is still playing himself into game shape, while Daniel Gibson is arguably better on both sides of the ball right now. And although J.J.’s defense is usually a roller-coaster ride, his overall game is bigger than Jamario’s right now.
And no, Leon Powe did not get into the game . . . although he was active and available. [It'll be interesting to see if he makes his debut on Thursday night in Boston. He'll probably be pretty rusty . . . and hasn't meshed with the team in an actual game . . . but you know he wants a piece of that.]
LeBron played 44 minutes, Jamison played 37, Delonte played 32, Mo and Shaq played 31, Anderson played 28, AP played 27 and Jamario played nine minutes.
The scoring and shot distribution also had a nice, even playoff-type feel.
LeBron and Shaq led the team with 20 points each. Jamison had 18, Anderson had 14, Delonte and AP both had 13, Mo had 6 and Jamario had 1 point. And here’s how the shots and assists broke down:
- LeBron: 7-of-16 . . . 13 assists
- Jamison: 7-of-14 . . . 2 assists
- Shaq: 9-of-13 . . . 0 assists
- Anderson: 6-of-12 . . . 0 assists
- Delonte: 5-of-10 . . . 3 assists
- Mo: 2-of-9 . . . 8 assists
- AP: 4-of-7 . . . 1 assist
- Moon: 0-of-1 . . . 2 assists
Oh, and six of the eight players had between four and seven rebounds: LeBron (5), Jamison (6), Shaq (7), AP (4), Delonte (4) and Anderson (7). Jamario added a couple and Mo had one.
The offense as a whole was intermittent. It looked great in the first quarter . . . and in patches throughout the rest of the game. The good news is, Jamison is clearly well on his way to finding his place within the offense.
Now, if only the Cavs’ defense could come together.
Once again, they allowed an opponent to shoot 50% . . . and once again, they made a star out of a rookie. Make that two. Marcus Thornton went off for 37 points, and Darren Collison had 22.
It’s hard to say how much the tightened rotation had to do with this win . . . if anything. Mike Brown prefers to have his players work out their wrinkles on the floor, so his decision probably had more to do with giving Jamison, Delonte and Mo as much playing time as possible with LeBron and Shaq to give them an opportunity to get a feel for each other and inspire more on-court chemistry.
Still, it’ll be interesting to see how he handles the rotation throughout the rest of the regular season (at least, in games where the score remains within 10 either way).
Will we see more tight rotations with the eighth spot sort of an open slot to try someone different in each game, depending on the match-ups . . . or, once things settle down, will the rotation be expanded once again, to play around with all the possible groups and lineups?
There are threesomes, foursomes, and fivesomes that will be magical and lethal for the Cavs . . . even against the top teams in the league . . . it’s just a matter of discovering them, and finding how and where they fit.
Regardless, if Z comes back . . . and a healthy Cavs team is legitimately 13 deep . . . Mike Brown has both the easiest job in the league and the hardest.
He has the talent to win. Now he must configure it so they do.
An Epic Game Lost at the Line(s)
Allow me to be cute for a moment.
If the Washington Wizards buy out Zydrunas Ilguaskas, the Cleveland Cavaliers picked up Antawn Jamison for free on Wednesday. On Thursday night, the Cavs weren’t getting anything for free.
Yes, this is yet another recap of the Cavaliers’ 118-116 overtime loss to the Denver Nuggets that hinges on missed free throws. If you read a lot of Cavs blogs . . . like you should be doing during a special season like this . . . you’ve probably heard this before:
This was an epic game . . . and the Cavs could have won it, if they’d hit their free throws.
[If you missed it, first: Shame on you. You should at least be DVRing these games. This is an exciting season, kids. If you did record the game, but haven't watched it yet: Oops. Well, since it's already spoiled, the game came down to Carmelo Anthony nailing a tough shot with one-point-something seconds left in overtime . . . and Cleveland half-court inbounding to James, where he slipped and missed a three.]
But it shouldn’t have got to that point.
The Cavs as a whole shot a very Shaq-like 57.5% (23-of-40) from the stripe. (Actually, Shaq is at 50% for the season.) And they would have been OK, if Shaq was Shaq-like.
Here are the missed free throw culprits:
Shaquille O’Neal . . . 0-for-6 (0%)
Daniel Gibson . . . 1-for-3 (33%)
Anthony Parker . . . 3-for-5 (60%)
LeBron James . . . 12-for-17 (71%)
Meanwhile, Mo Williams went 2-for-2 and J.J. Hickson went 4-for-5 from the stripe.
The Cavs also had twice as many turnovers as the Nuggets . . . but it was just 10-to-5. Denver only had five turnovers in an overtime game. That’s pretty impressive. (The Cavs average 14.5 a game.)
And then there’s the other line. Cleveland is the second-best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 40.2%, but it wasn’t going in for them (read: LeBron) in this one. They only shot 30%, 7-for-23, and a lot of the misses were bad shots taken late in the game.
Here are the missed 3-pointer culprits:
LeBron James . . . 1-for-9 (11%)
[He took a full-court three at the very end of the third quarter, and then there was that three attempt with one-point-something seconds left at the end of the game. But he took four total threes in overtime and missed them all. And in the third quarter, he made one and missed four. So he went 1-for-8 in the second half. It's unnecessary, this offense doesn't need to be that desperate.
Anthony Parker . . . 2-for-5 (40%)
[Obviously, that's a decent percentage, although his last three attempt,with 12.9 left in regulation, was not a good shot. But that falls on LeBron too. He walked around for 18 seconds, dribbling the ball 30 feet away from the basket, before finally throwing it to AP. The game was tied at that point. A two-pointer would have worked, and in retrospect won the game.]
All in all, this was one of those average Cavs games. They played amazing offense for stretches, and then reverted to static ball movement at the end of the game . . . and they played good defense, but only at the end of the game, when they needed to.
The Wine and Gold Rush Awards:
[We'll be giving these out after each game.]
Most Valuable Player: LeBron James.
I gave LeBron a few jabs earlier, but he had a phenomenal statistical game that has never happened in recorded history. He had 43 points (on 15-of-33 shooting) with 13 rebounds, 15 assists, two steals and four blocks.
“Cleveland Plain Dealer” beat-writer Brian Windhorst wrote:
“According to Elias Sports Bureau, he’s the first player in recorded history to record at least those numbers in a game. Key word there is recorded because they didn’t start keeping steals and blocks until 1973. My guess is Wilt Chamberlain had quite a few better efforts.
“To me this is more impressive: LeBron’s the last player to have at least 40 points, 13 rebounds and 15 assists since Oscar Robertson on Feb. 13th, 1962. The Big O, who was at the game tonight, had 42 points, 18 assists and 15 rebounds that night.” [link]
For what it’s worth, at halftime LBJ had eight points (on 2-of-9 shooting) with four rebounds and seven assists.
Interesting stat: Anthony Parker had a plus/minus of +15. The only other player with a positive number was Shaq, with a +3. They were both on the court when the Cavs went on a major run in the third quarter.
Least Valuable Player: Jamario Moon.
This is unfair. Jamario didn’t get into the game.
But that’s just it, he didn’t get into the game. As you saw, Mo was a late add to the active roster. He didn’t start, but had eight points (on 2-of-5 shooting) and three assists in 18 minutes.
Apparently, Jamario is the odd man out . . . at least for now . . . with both Delonte West and Mo back in action. The Cavs’ minutes will contract even further when Antawn Jamison and Leon Powe are ready to go. And although nothing is certain, that could happen as soon as tonight in Charlotte.
Random Note: Jawad Williams played 16 minutes in this one. So unless something is wrong with Jamario that we don’t know about, Jawad has moved in front of Jamario on the depth chart. At least for now.
“The Diff Award” (for the difference maker, even in defeat): Anderson Varejao.
This was one of those games that Anderson is there to win for you. And he did a lot right; it was the rest of the team that couldn’t come through at the ends (of regulation and overtime).
I can tell you that Andy had six points (on 3-of-6 shooting) with nine rebounds, a steal and three blocks . . . but as usual, that doesn’t do Andy’s impact justice. He may not have been the second-best player on the team, but with a clutch steal and four big-time offensive rebounds, he gave the Cavs some extra chances to win it.
J.J. deserves a shout out here. His biggest drawbacks this season have been his defense and horrible plus/minus. Against Denver, he defended the pick-and-roll well . . . and succeeded, most of the time, with his own pick-and-roll at the other end. Can I say that he looked a little like a diet Amar’e at times?
He finished with 14 points (third on the team) on 5-for-7 shooting. He had two assists and only two rebounds, but he played 30 minutes . . . and had an even plus/minus (third-best on the team).
Also, aside from the free throw problems, Shaq had 18 points (on 9-of-15 shooting).
Oh, and FYI: The Cavs win streak ends at 13 games, tying last year’s team record.